by Bill Holter

To all; we are now entering uncharted territory. The government seizure of FNM and FRE opens up the next and terrifying chapter of the credit crunch. As I have posited many times before, this has NOW ENDED UP IN THE LAP OF THE U.S. TREASURY! The Treasury is now the backstop to all things paper. This will be a real life “Atlas shrugged”. There are huge implications to this step. The Treasury will now have between $5-6 Trillion of mortgage loans added to its balance sheet. The Treasury is in a huge deficit already to the tune of $10 Trillion of funded liabilities and over $70 Trillion of unfunded future liabilities. It is over. The U.S. Treasury is broke. This will take the entire banking system with it. The banking system will need to writedown $36 Billion of Fannie and Freddie preferred stock that is carried as core capital. This means at a 6% reserve ratio, that another $500 Billion of credit must be withdwrawn to keep capital ratios from collapsing. The Treasury stimulus plan was $140 Billion [remember those $600 checks]. Now 3 times that amount will have to be withdrawn from the credit pool unless Treasury doesn’t magically credit these banks with $36 Billion.

There is no telling how much the carried loans are really worth in todays market as even prime loans are only fetching .80 cents on the Dollar. This will cost at least $1 Trillion at a minimum for starters. It will all be printed. The credit rating of the U.S. will be downgraded, the interest rates the Treasury will now have to pay will increase substantially. This is so Dollar negative it goes beyond words to describe it. The borrowing ability of the Treasury is now being hamstrung by the same credit crunch that we were assured last Sept. was “contained”. I’m sorry but the ruse is over. A government running a deficit can only do two things to cover the gap, borrow more or print. They can’t raise taxes because that will implode the economy even worse than it already is. They will find it more and more difficult to borrow the sums needed until the auctions begin to fail. Then the “black helicopters” will be out in full force spreading freshly printed Dollars. The dilutive effect to the Dollar will be astonishing. We are entering the Weimar Republic phase. The Treasury will be crushed under debt and the Dollar [Fed] will be crushed through overissuance of new currency used to buy the Treasury debt.
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by James McShirley

Now we know. The giant black hole of derivatives at JPM is about to become the size of Jupiter. With the utter failure of Fannie and Freddie (a culmination of what I predicted 12 years ago) Fannie and Freddie’s massive derivatives portfolios can now be hidden from public scrutiny. These trillions of derivatives, which in likelihood have already failed, can now be whitewashed with the able assistance of the US taxpayer. Also the true values of their mortgage portfolios gets deep-sixed. This is no doubt the single largest financial failure in the history of the world. The Fed had every reason to previously discontinue M-3 reporting. Can you imagine what is about to happen to the dollar supply once this catastrophe starts getting paid for? Look for wild market gyrations as these derivatives get dealt with by the insiders who will now know both sides of the trade. What a deal, the taxpayer backs you and you know both sides of the trade, how can you lose? The derivatives may now become hidden from view, but the inflationary implications will become VERY evident. Another ominous problem facing FNM and FRE is a collapse in their pension plans and retirement funds. Retirees and current employees holding FNM/FRE stock will get wiped out, however a pension fund collapse would mean open revolt. This is another side-bailout I see coming.

Since FNM/FRE’s gigantic derivatives allegedly hedged against rising interest rates I think it’s safe to say you won’t be seeing any Fed interest rate hikes coming soon. This government takeover of the largest financial entity in America has in one fell swoop put into question ANY guarantee of debt, sovereign or otherwise. With this news gold should be up hundreds, maybe a thousand dollars if free markets were allowed. They will need to throw the kitchen sink at paper gold to prevent it from revealing the truth of what just happened. US Treasury bond prices now look egregiously high. This time it might not work. Next up for the weekend-only government news release program? Bailouts for GM, Ford, the entire banking industry, and who knows, if I’m hearing Bill Gross correctly maybe even PIMCO.