By Antal E. Fekete
Gold Standard University Live

December 2, 2008, was a landmark in the saga of the collapsing international monetary system, yet it did not deserve to be reported in the press: gold went to backwardation for the first time ever in history. The facts are as follows: on December 2nd, at the Comex in New York, December gold futures (last delivery: December 31) were quoted at 1.98% discount to spot, while February gold futures (last delivery: February 27, 2009) were quoted at 0.14% discount to spot. (All percentages annualized.) The condition got worse on December 3rd, when the corresponding figures were 2% and 0.29%. This means that the gold basis has turned negative, and the condition of backwardation persisted for at least 48 hours. I am writing this in the wee hours of December 4th, when trading of gold futures has not yet started in New York.

According to the December 3rd Comex delivery report, there are 11,759 notices to take delivery. This represents 1.1759 million ounces of gold, while the Comex-approved warehouses hold 2.9 million ounces. Thus 40% of the total amount will have to be delivered by December 31st. Since not all the gold in the warehouses is available for delivery, Comex supply of gold falls far short of the demand at present rates. Futures markets in gold are breaking down. Paper gold is progressively being discredited.

Already there was a slight backwardation in gold at the expiry of a previous active contract month, but it never spilled over to the next active contract month, as it does now: backwardation in the December contract is spilling over to the February contract which at last reading was 0.36%. Silver is also in backwardation, with the discount on silver futures being about twice that on gold futures.

As those who attended my seminar on the gold basis in Canberra last month know, the gold basis is a pristine, incorruptible measure of trust, or the lack of it in case it turns negative, in paper money. Of course, it is too early to say whether gold has gone to permanent backwardation, or whether the condition will rectify itself (it probably will). Be that as it may, it does not matter. The fact that it has happened is the coup de grâce for the regime of irredeemable currency. It will bleed to death, maybe rather slowly, even if no other hits, blows, or shocks are dealt to the system. Very few people realize what is going on and, of course, official sources and the news media won’t be helpful to them to explain the significance of all this. I am trying to be helpful to the discriminating reader.

Gold going to permanent backwardation means that gold is no longer for sale at any price, whether it is quoted in dollars, yens, euros, or Swiss francs. The situation is exactly the same as it has been for years: gold is not for sale at any price quoted in Zimbabwe currency, however high the quote is. To put it differently, all offers to sell gold are being withdrawn, whether it concerns newly mined gold, scrap gold, bullion gold or coined gold. I dubbed this event that has cast its long shadow forward for many a year, the last contango in Washington ? contango being the name for the condition opposite to backwardation (namely, that of a positive basis), and Washington being the city where the Paper-mill of the Potomac, the Federal Reserve Board, is located. This is a tongue-in-cheek way of saying that the jig in Washington is up. The music has stopped on the players of ‘musical chairs’. Those who have no gold in hand are out of luck. They won’t get it now through the regular channels. If they want it, they will have to go to the black market.

I founded Gold Standard University Live (GSUL) two years ago and dedicated it to research of monetary issues that are pointedly ignored by universities, government think-tanks, and the financial press, centered around the question of long-term viability of the regime of irredeemable currency. Historical experiments with that type of currency were many but all of them, without exception, have ended in ignominious failure accompanied with great economic pain, unless the experiment was called off in good time and the authorities returned to monetary rectitude, that is, to a metallic monetary standard. It is also worth pointing out that the present experiment is unique in that all countries of the world indulge in it. Not one country is on a metallic monetary standard, under which the Treasury and the Central Bank are subject to the same contract law as ordinary citizens. They cannot issue irredeemable promises to pay and keep them in monetary circulation through a conspiracy known as check-kiting. Not one country will be spared from the fire and brimstone that once rained on the cities of Sodom and Gomorrah as a punishment of God for immoral behavior.

In all previous episodes there were some countries around that did not listen to the siren song and stayed on the gold standard. They could give a helping hand to the deviant ones, thus limiting economic pain. Today there are no such countries. If you want to be saved, you must be prepared to save yourself.

You cannot understand the process whereby a fiat money system self-destructs without understanding the gold and silver basis. The Quantity Theory of Money does not provide an explanation, because deflation may well precede hyperinflation, as it appears to be the case right now.

For these reasons I placed the study of the gold and silver basis on the top of the list of research topics for GSUL. These can serve as an early warning system that will signal the beginning of the end. The end is approaching with the inevitability of the climax in a Greek tragedy, as the heroes and heroines are drawn to their own destruction. The present reactionary experiment with paper money is entering its death-throes. GSUL has had five sessions and could have established itself as an important, and even the only, source of information about this cataclysmic event: the confrontation of the Titanic (representing the international monetary system) with the iceberg (representing gold and its vanishing basis) as the latter is emerging from the fog too late to avoid collision.

Unfortunately, this was not meant to be: GSUL has to terminate its operations due to a decision made by Mr. Eric Sprott, of Sprott Asset Management, to terminate sponsoring GSUL, saying that “results do not justify the expense.”

I sincerely regret that our activities did not live up to the expectations of Mr. Sprott, but I am very proud of the fact that our research is still the only source of information on the vanishing gold basis and its corollary, the seizing up of the paper money system that threatens the world, as it does, with a Great Depression eclipsing that of the 1930’s.

Let me summarize the salient points of discussion during the last two sessions of GSUL for the benefit of those who wanted to attend but couldn’t. The gold basis is the difference between the futures and the cash price of gold. More precisely it is the price of the nearby active futures contract in the gold futures market minus the cash price of physical gold in the spot market. Historically it has been positive ever since gold futures trading started at the Winnipeg Commodity Exchange in 1972 (except for some rare hiccups at the triple-witching hour. Such deviations have been called ‘logistical’ in nature, having to do with the simultaneous expiry of gold futures and the put and call option contracts on them. In all these instances the anomaly of a negative basis resolved itself in a matter of a few hours.)

In the commodity futures markets the terminus technicus for a positive basis is contango; that for a negative one, backwardation. Contango implies the existence of a healthy supply of the commodity in the warehouses available for immediate delivery, while backwardation implies shortages and conjures up the scraping of the bottom of the barrel. The basis is limited on the upside by the carrying charges; but there is no limit on the downside as it can fall to any negative value (meaning that the cash price may exceed the futures price by any amount, however large).

Contango whereby the futures price of gold is quoted at a premium to the spot price is the normal condition for the gold market, and for a very good reason, too. The supply of monetary gold in the world is very large relatively speaking. Babbling about the ‘scarcity of gold’ reflects the opinion of uninformed or badly informed people. In terms of the ratio of stocks to flows the supply of gold is far and away greater than that of any commodity. Silver is second only to gold. It is this fact that makes the two of them the only monetary metals. The impact on the gold price of a discovery of an extremely rich gold field, or the coming on stream of an extremely rich gold mine, is minimal ? in view of the large existing stocks. Paradoxically, what makes gold valuable is not its scarcity but its relative abundance, which evokes that superb confidence in the steadiness of the value of gold that will not be decreased by a banner production year, nor can it be increased by withdrawing gold coins from circulation. For this reason there is no better fly-wheel regulator for the value of currency than gold. The same goes, albeit to a lesser degree, for silver.

Here is the fundamental difference between the monetary metal, gold, and other commodities. Backwardation will pull in stocks from the moon as it were, if need be. The cure for the backwardation of any commodity is more backwardation. For gold, there is no cure. Backwardation in gold is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon: it is a reminder of the incurable pathology of paper money. It dramatizes the decay of the regime of irredeemable currency. It can only get worse. As confidence in the value of fiat money is a fragile thing, it will not get better. It depicts the paper dollar as Humpty Dumpty who sat on a wall and had a great fall and, now, “all the king’s horses and all the king’s men could not put Humpty Dumpty together again.” To paraphrase a proverb, give paper currency a bad name, you might as well scrap it.

Once entrenched, backwardation in gold means that the cancer of the dollar has reached its terminal stages. The progressively evaporating trust in the value of the irredeemable dollar can no longer be stopped.

Negative basis (backwardation) means that people controlling the supply of monetary gold cannot be persuaded to part with it, regardless of the bait. These people are no speculators. They are neither Scrooges nor Shylocks. They are highly capable businessmen with a conservative frame of mind. They are determined to preserve their capital come hell or high water, for saner times, so they can re-deploy it under a saner government and a saner monetary system. Their instrument is the ownership of monetary gold. They blithely ignore the siren song promising risk-free profits. Indeed, they could sell their physical gold in the spot market and buy it back at a discount in the futures market for delivery in 30 days. In any other commodity, traders controlling supply would jump at the opportunity. The lure of risk-free profits would be irresistible. Not so in the case of gold. Owners refuse to be coaxed out of their gold holdings, however large the bait may be. Why?

Well, they don’t believe that the physical gold will be there and available for delivery in 30 days’ time. They don’t want to be stuck with paper gold, which is useless for their purposes of capital preservation.

December 2 is a landmark, because before that date the monetary system could have been saved by opening the U.S. Mint to gold. Now, given the fact of gold backwardation, it is too late. The last chance to avoid disaster has been missed. The proverbial last straw has broken the back of the camel.

I have often been told that the U.S. Mint is already open to gold, witness the Eagle and Buffalo gold coins. But these issues were neither unlimited, nor were they coined free of seigniorage. They were sold at a premium over bullion content. They were a red herring, dropped to make people believe that gold coins can always be obtained from the U.S. Mint, and from other government mints of the world. However, as the experience of the past two or three months shows, one mint after another stopped taking orders for gold coins and suspended their gold operations. The reason is that the flow of gold to the mints has become erratic. It may dry up altogether. This shows that the foreboding has been evoked by the looming gold backwardation, way ahead of the event. Now the truth is out: you can no longer coax gold out of hiding with paper profits.

If the governments of the great trading nations had really wanted to save the world from a catastrophic collapse of world trade, then they should have opened their mints to gold. Now gold backwardation has caught up with us and shut down the free flow of gold in the system. This will have catastrophic consequences. Few people realize that the shutting down of the gold trade, which is what is happening, means the shutting down of world trade. This is a financial earthquake measuring ten on the Greenspan scale, with epicenter at the Comex in New York, where the Twin Towers of the World Trade Center once stood. It is no exaggeration to say that this event will trigger a tsunami wiping out the prosperity of the world.

References

By the same author:

The Rise and Fall of the Gold Basis, June 23, 2006

Monetary and Non-Monetary Commodities, June 25, 2006

The Last Contango in Washington, June 30, 2006

Gold, Interest, Basis, March,7, 2007

Gold Vanishing into private Hoards, May 31, 2007

Opening the Mint to Gold and Silver, February 5, 2008

These and other articles of the author can be accessed at the website

www.professorfekete.com

Note: the author is coming out with a follow-up piece:

Has the Curtain Fallen on the Last Contango in Washington?

Stay tuned.

Calendar of events

Szombathely, Martineum Academy, Hungary, March 28-29, 2009

Encore Session of Gold Standard University Live.

Topics: When Will the Gold Standard Be Released from Quarantine?

The Vaporization of the Derivatives Tower

Labor and the Unfolding Great Depression

Gold and Silver in Backwardation: What Does It All Mean?

San Francisco School of Economics, June-August, 2009

Money and Banking, a ten-week course based on the work of Professor Fekete.

TheSyllabus of this course is can be seen on the website:

www.professorfekete.com

By Antal Fekete

A Message To American Labor Leaders

The “crime of 1873″

My title is a paraphrase of the 1896 battle-cry of William Jennings Bryan during his presidential bid. He was talking about ‘crucifying mankind on a cross of gold’. Bryan was protesting against the unconstitutional closing of the U.S. Mint to silver. Congress inadvertently suspended the unlimited coinage of the standard silver dollar, which it had no authority to do under the Constitution. Bryan called it “the crime of 1873″.

No battle-cry was issued during this year’s presidential campaign by the finalists in protest against our present unconstitutional paper money system, even though it has started a wave of unprecedented unemployment that would sweep through the land in the wake of the current financial crisis and the official response to it: further serial cuttings of the rate of interest.

Politicians have long ago vacated the field of warning people about the danger caused by violations of the monetary provisions of the Constitution. It is now incumbent on the leadership of American labor to call the workers to rise in protest against the job-destroying policies of the government. Please take a few moments and bear with me as I go through a simple monetary explanation of the job-destruction process that has been going on in America for the past thirty years through serial cuttings of the rate of interest, that will reach fever-pitch next year.

Serial rate-cuts destroy the wage fund

Suppose you are a worker taking home $50,000 a year in wages. When your income-flow is capitalized at the current rate of interest of, say, 5 percent, you arrive at the figure of $1,000,000. The sum of one million dollars or its equivalent in physical capital must exist somewhere, in some form, the yield of which will continue paying your wages. Capital has been accumulated and turned into plant and equipment to support you at work. Part of your employer’s capital is the wage fund that backs your employment. Assuming, of course, that no one is allowed to tamper with the rate of interest.

Suppose for the sake of argument that the rate of interest is cut in half to 2½ percent. Nothing could be clearer than the fact that the $1,000,000 wage fund is no longer adequate to support your payroll, as its annual yield has been reduced to $25,000. This can be described by saying that every time the rate of interest is cut by half, capital is being destroyed, wiping out half of the wage fund. Unless compensation is made by adding more capital, your employment is no longer supported by a full slate of capital as before. Since productivity is nothing but the result of combining labor and capital, the productivity of your job has been impaired. You are in danger of being laid off — or forced to take a wage cut of $25,000.

Lemming-like rush into certain disaster

I have news for you. Employers are not in the habit of compensating for the destruction of capital caused by falling interest rates. Rather, they welcome the cut as manna sent from heaven. They are kissing the hand that is strangling them. They are as badly misinformed about the lethal effects of a falling interest rate structure as the rest of society. They confuse a low interest rate structure with a falling one. No less than employees, employers are hurt by the destruction of capital caused by serial rate cuts. After all, it is their capital, too, that is being destroyed. Nevertheless, they accept at face value the official propaganda line that “falling interest rates are good for you”. Employers are like lemmings running to their own certain disaster.

The “crime of 1971″

In the euphoria of celebrating the advent of the irredeemable dollar in 1971, politicians and economists have ‘forgotten’ to look at the untoward consequences of the New Brave World of synthetic credit. Not only was the dollar destabilized by the ‘crime of 1971′; interest rates were cut adrift as well. The U.S. Treasury was soon forced to print 16 percent coupons on its 30 year bonds which would not otherwise sell.

This did not present much of a problem to the Treasury, since interest on bonds was now payable in irredeemable dollars. The same paper, the same amount of ink, and the same printing press would produce the coupon at the same cost, whether it carried the figure 4 or 16, with which the obligation would be discharged.

However, bringing down the rate of interest from 16 percent to its normal level of 4 percent was a different story altogether. It meant that the rate had to be halved twice from 16 to 8 and from 8 to 4 percent, destroying three quarters of the wage fund. Is there any wonder why so many well-paid American industrial jobs were driven offshore in the intervening years, as production was being outsourced?

Academia and media were silent on the real cause of the de-industrialization of America: the destruction of capital through serial rate-cutting. They are still silent as they expect that the Federal Reserve will do more money magic and pump still more money into the economy, causing rates to fall still more. They are oblivious to the fact that this will destroy still more capital in the process, pulling more rug from underneath employment.

Vanishing capital

The problem is vanishing capital. During the past thirty years capital was destroyed across the board as the long-term rate was pushed down from 16 to 4 percent, and the short-term rate from 22 to 1 percent. The process is insidious: only one in a million can identify the causal relation between vanishing interest and vanishing capital. As a result the captains of industry are not aware of what is happening to the capital of their enterprise until it is too late and they are forced to fold tent. Even then, they have no idea what has hit them. It would never cross their mind to blame irredeemable currency and the serial cutting of interest rates for the disaster. Hat in hand, they go to Washington to beg for bailout money with which they can shore up their capital structure. They don’t realize that Washington will claw it all back just as soon as the next round of rate cuts are announced.

Make no mistake about it: vanishing capital does not disappear without a trace. It is being siphoned away clandestinely from the capital account of businesses, to benefit the issuers of irredeemable dollars and their cohorts. These honorable gentlemen cut rates with their right hand and grab the obscene profits thus generated on their bond portfolio with their left hand. It is legalized embezzlement. Keynesians say that the government can turn the stone into bread through driving down the rate of interest to zero. It would be more accurate to say that the government, in a vampire-like fashion, sucks the blood of labor through the bleeding of their wage fund.

The fate of the auto industry

As a result of vanishing capital the American auto industry, not so long ago the envy of the world, is tottering at the brink. The statistical likelihood of the three giant auto-makers running out of capital at the same time is nil. The fact that they do is the evidence of outside interference. The capital of the auto industry has been eroded and ultimately destroyed by the serial rate cuts of the Federal Reserve. It is true that the industry has been adding new capital in the form of state-of-the-art technology. But it could not keep up with the relentless serial rate-cutting. The Fed can cut rates faster than the auto industry can build and equip new factories.

The blame for the suffering should be put squarely on the criminal check-kiting conspiracy between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve. They issue and swap liabilities which they are neither willing nor able to meet. It is a charade, pretending to serve the interest of the national economy when, in fact, they are destroying the nation’s capital.

The destruction is not visible to the naked eye. The details are in the book-keeping. That’s why the sabotage is so hard to detect. As the rate of interest is being pushed down, it makes inroads on the wage fund. Employers are unable to meet their payroll because the falling interest-rate structure calls for ever larger capital to fund it. Unemployment is the result, which is becoming widespread and chronic.

Under a stable interest rate structure none of this would happen. The auto industry and its workers would have a bright future, as they did before the ‘crime of 1971′ hit them. Every worker who is being laid off should be reminded of that fact. They should know that they are being sacrificed on the altar of Mammon. They should understand that they are being crucified on the cross of paper money.

Capital destruction at an ever faster rate

Please also note that the rate of capital destruction is accelerating as we are getting closer to the black hole of zero interest. In principle halving the rate can continue indefinitely. In reality, ever smaller absolute cuts will have ever greater destructive effect on the wage fund. While in the 1980’s it took an 8 percent decline to wipe out half of the wage fund, right now a 2 percent, and thereafter a mere 1 percent cut will do the trick, causing the same amount of damage to employment. This means that the level of economic pain increases ever faster, soon reaching the point where it will become unbearable.

The situation is more than desperate. The political process has failed. The president-elect has committed himself to the status-quo. He will not challenge the unlimited power usurped by the Fed, as his nomination of the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to the post of Treasury Secretary indicates. This nomination evoked the comment, echoed in the New York Times on November 25, that “Geithner deserves retirement, not promotion”. (He is 47.) Obama’s utterances during the election campaign seem to suggest that he believes in Keynesian prestidigitation, turning the stone into bread through serial cuts in the rate of interest, and in Friedmanite money magic of the printing press.

Labor’s finest hour

The only remaining hope the country has is that labor will not tolerate the ongoing destruction of capital. It will not take it lying down any more. It will take to the streets and confront the small reactionary elite running our monetary regime, including Geithner. This is the most destructive system ever devised: the regime of irredeemable currency. Every time it has been tried in history it failed miserably. As the current crisis clearly shows, this time is no different. What is different is that this time the entire world is on irredeemable paper money. That has never happened before. Accordingly, the stakes are immeasurably higher as irredeemable currency is getting ready to self-destruct.

Labor must take the initiative and demand that Congress put an immediate end to the mindless destruction of capital. Congress should stop the Federal Reserve from pursuing a monetary policy of open-ended deliberate interest-rate cuts. The economy is now like a runaway train with brakes disabled, entering a downhill section of tracks. Crash is certain. At the end of the run the country could be completely denuded of capital, with a large part of its labor force idled.

Labor could be the savior of the country in forcing a return to constitutional money at the eleventh hour, by demanding that the Obama administration open the U.S. Mint to gold and silver. That measure would enable the brakes on the money-train. It would stabilize foreign exchange and interest rates and stop the shredding machine, now spinning out of control, from destroying capital. This would be labor’s finest hour: saving the United States from financial ruin and ignominy.

This country has an intelligent, dedicated, and industrious labor force. The best in the world. It should step into the breach. Time for street action has come, if we want to prevent blood from flowing in the streets later.

By Antal Fekete

Gold Standard University Live

The title refers to Aesop’s tale about the wolf that has lost his tail in a trap. As he felt uncomfortable being so different from others in the pack, he tried to persuade his fellow wolves that they, too, should get rid of this cumbersome and useless appendage. He declared that “the tail of a real wolf is a barbarous relic”. Read on to find out how an experienced wise old wolf answered him.

Like all of Aesop’s tales, this one also has a modern message. When Uncle Sam in 1971 defaulted on his gold obligations, he did not want people to call a spade a spade. He wanted them to call the American default, more elegantly, the ’demonetization of gold’. He was trying to persuade others to demonetize gold, too, by discarding it as a “barbarous relic”. Yet he was disingenuous enough to keep the remnants of his gold while pushing others to sell theirs. He urged them to auction off that cumbersome and useless appendage and put the proceeds into US Treasury paper.”"Cut off your tail to save my face!”

The late Mr. Ferdinand Lips asked me to write an introduction to his book “Gold Wars”. I was delighted and the outcome is reproduced below. In my dedicated copy Mr. Lips wrote the following kind words:
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